Will Crude Oil (WTI) continue to rise or not?
Along with Brent and Dubai Crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a particular grade of crude oil and one of the three major benchmarks for oil pricing. Because of its relatively low density (with a particular gravity) and Sulphur content of between 0.24% and 0.34%, WTI is referred to as light sweet oil. One of the best-quality oils in worldwide production that is simple to refine, is mainly obtained from inland Texas. WTI is the basis for the oil futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and it is regarded as a high-quality, easily processed oil.
Several variables could have an impact on the cost of crude oil in the coming months, which may explain the recent stabilization of crude oil prices after an amazing spike witnessed at the start of last week. Global demand and supply, which is driven by economic development, geopolitical events, and extreme weather that disrupts the supply of petroleum products and crude oil to the market, is one of the most important factors influencing crude oil prices. Transport (both industrial and personal), population expansion, and seasonal variations are further significant elements that influence oil demand. The rate of economic growth can also be impacted by oil prices. The OPEC+ reduction in production and reports of increased U.S. oil demand have both affected crude oil prices. But due to concerns that demand would decline because of interest rate hikes, crude prices have fallen over the past weeks and months. The future direction for crude oil pricing is hazy, and it is challenging to forecast the precise course of prices going forward.
Problematic supply concerns persist (OPEC output cuts)
According to the results of the search, there are differing views on whether the price of petroleum (WTI) would climb in 2023 despite supply problems still being a concern because of OPEC production restrictions. WTI is expected to average $87.33/b in 2023, according to the EIA. Brent crude was predicted to reach $105 by the year's end of 2023 because of the OPEC+ production cutbacks announcement.
According to the bank's WTI oil price projection, US crude would average $89.6 in 2023 before rising to $104 by the year's end and remaining there in 2024. However, the estimate for 2023's average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude had been $83.94 per barrel, down from the previous month's forecast of $85.40. In the 2nd half of 2023, the oil markets will become in deficit, pushing prices above $90 per barrel. It is significant to remember that a variety of factors, including global supply and demand, recovery in the economy, and geopolitical developments, affect crude oil prices. As a result, it is challenging to forecast the precise price trend for the future.
Chances that the Fed will raise rates again, keeping the emphasis on oil prices
It's debatable if crude oil prices will continue to climb in 2023, and it's unclear how a rise in Fed interest rates will affect crude oil prices. Fears that demand may dwindle owing to increased interest rates have caused crude prices to decrease over the past few weeks and months. On April 17, 2023, the price of Brent crude oil was $84.76 per barrel while the price of WTI oil was $80.83 per barrel. Brent crude was predicted to reach $105 by the end of the year 2023, with an average price of $85.01 in 2023 and a decline to $81.21 in 2024.
The oil market will become a deficit, pushing prices beyond $90 a barrel in the 2nd half of 2023. However, due to worries about a global recession and a high-interest rate environment, the prices quickly dropped again. It is significant to remember that various factors, including global supply and demand, economic recovery, and global developments, affect crude oil prices. As a result, it is challenging to forecast the precise trend of pricing in the future.
Will the eagerly anticipated Chinese demand pick up
WTI crude oil prices in 2023 may be impacted by the long-awaited rise in Chinese demand. A Reuters poll predicts that as China increases its consumption and Russia reduces its supply, the oil markets will swing into a deficit, pushing prices beyond $90 a barrel in the 2nd half of 2023. According to the International Energy Agency, China will account for about half of the 2 million bpd increase in global oil consumption this year. After the first half, demand may surpass supply, driving up prices. Crude oil price fluctuations can also be caused by other elements like demand and supply dynamics, geopolitical developments, and market disruptions. The agency predicted that the price would average $85.01 in 2023 before dipping to $81.21 by 2024.
Several other factors impact crude oil prices
The prospects for the price of crude oil in 2023, including WTI, are uncertain and subject to change due to several variables. The global economic environment and COVID-19 flare-ups within China are two key factors that can affect crude oil prices. These issues have the potential to harm demand growth and counteract the effects of supply shortages brought on by sanctions against Russia. The production and consumption of oil on a worldwide scale is another factor that may have an impact on prices by changing the balance between supply and demand. The price of crude oil can also be impacted by geopolitical developments, market disruptions, and advances in technology. Brent crude oil prices are predicted to average $83 per barrel in 2023, a decrease from $101 per barrel in 2022, according to the EIA, primarily due to the expectation that global oil output will outstrip consumption. The oil sector has struggled to forecast crude prices, and the picture for 2023 is clouded by unstable geopolitical and economic circumstances. The prospects for crude oil prices are hazy, and it is challenging to foresee the precise course of future prices.
Conclusion
Because of several variables, including worldwide demand and supply, recovery in the economy, geopolitical developments, and disruptions to the market, the price of WTI crude oil in 2023 is unpredictable and liable to fluctuate. In the second half of the year 2023, the production cuts by OPEC+ and projected growth in Chinese demand may cause prices to exceed $90 per barrel. Prices could, however, also decrease once again due to concerns about a worldwide recession and an atmosphere with high-interest rates. To get more clarity about price forecasting visit Pricevision, an AI/ML based price forecasting tool, and get started today for better investment strategy and decisions.